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摘要
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This article develops an insurer-based contingent-claim framework to examine how green finance supports the low-carbon transition of fossil-fuel supply chains under cap-and-trade regulation, with a focus on emerging markets. The model integrates circular production strategies with stranded-asset risks to evaluate their impacts on equity valuation, equity risk, and insurer guaranteed-rate setting across an interconnected
supply chain consisting of an upstream fossil-fuel producer and downstream plastic and electric power firms. Comparative statics show that stricter cap-and-trade regulation reduces equity values and increase equity risk for carbon-intensive firms, potentially
destabilizing clean energy investment incentives associated with SDG 7. Recycling in plastic production raises downstream equity while amplifying equity risk, whereas slag downcycling supported by carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) generates
asymmetric spillovers by improving upstream equity performance and lowering its risk through demand and financing channels. Overall, the results highlight how circular production and carbon regulation interact with insurer-mediated green finance to shape investment incentives, risk allocation, and the pace of the transition toward affordable and cleaner energy systems. |
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