Relationship between the Tropical Cyclone Forecast Skill and the Western North Pacific Summer Monsoon in the ECMWF Monthly Ensemble
學年 111
學期 2
發表日期 2023-04-23
作品名稱 Relationship between the Tropical Cyclone Forecast Skill and the Western North Pacific Summer Monsoon in the ECMWF Monthly Ensemble
作品名稱（其他語言）
著者 Tsai, Hsiao-chung; Lo, Tzu-ting; Chen, Meng-shih; Chen, Yun-jing; Kuo, Jui-ling; Hsu, Han-yu
作品所屬單位
出版者
會議名稱 EGU General Assembly 2023
會議地點 Vienna, Austria
摘要 In this study, week-1 to week-4 forecasts of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the western North Pacific are evaluated. The CWB TC Tracking System 2.0 (Lo et al. 2021) is used to objectively detect TCs in the 46-day ECMWF ensemble (ENS) forecasts in the 2021 season and also the reforecasts during 2001-2020. Preliminary evaluations of the probabilistic TC activity forecasts in the 20-year reforecasts show promising forecast skills. The reliability diagrams indicate slight over-forecasting bias in the weeks 1-4 forecasts, and the AUCs (Area Under Curves) are ranging from 0.91 (week-1) to 0.80 (week-4). The relationship between the TC activity forecast skill and the western North Pacific summer monsoon (WNPSM) is also investigated. The WNP monsoon index (WNPMI) proposed by Wang et al. (2001) is computed to provide a measure for the summer monsoon, and the TC forecast skills are evaluated under different levels of the WNPMI. To identify the potential false alarms, a spatial-temporal track clustering technique (Tsai et al. 2019) is implemented to objectively group similar vortex tracks in the 51-member forecasts. The corresponding ensemble mean track for each cluster is then used for performing the event-based verifications after the end of season. More details about the TC forecast verifications in weeks 1-4 using the ECMWF monthly ensemble will be presented in the meeting.
關鍵字
語言 en_US
收錄於
會議性質 國際
校內研討會地點 無
研討會時間 20230423~20230428
通訊作者
國別 AUT
公開徵稿
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機構典藏連結 ( http://tkuir.lib.tku.edu.tw:8080/dspace/handle/987654321/124592 )

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