Evaluation of Multi-Week Tropical Cyclone Forecasts in the Philippines
學年 112
學期 1
出版（發表）日期 2023-08-30
作品名稱 Evaluation of Multi-Week Tropical Cyclone Forecasts in the Philippines
作品名稱（其他語言）
著者 Tierra, M. C. M., T.T. Lo, H.C. Tsai, and M. Q. Villafuerte
單位
出版者
著錄名稱、卷期、頁數 Weather and Forecasting 38(11)
摘要 In the pursuit of providing tropical cyclone (TC) forecasts beyond the conventional timescales covered by weather forecasting in the Philippines, this study has examined the multi-week (i.e., from Week-1 to Week-4) TC forecast skill in the country. TC forecasts derived from three ensemble models, namely: NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2), European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Ensemble Prediction System (ECMWF), and NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System version 12 (GEFSv12) from 06 October 2020 to 31 October 2021 were verified. Results revealed that the ECMWF model is consistently the most skillful in multi-week TC prediction over the domain bounded by 110°–155°E and 0°–27°N in the western North Pacific. The ECMWF obtained hit rates ranging from 0.25 to 0.31, low false alarm rates of 0–0.33, and the highest equitable threat scores among the models. In contrast to this, the GEFSv12 and CFSv2 models had varying skills, with the former performing better in the first two weeks and the latter in longer lead times. It is further revealed that the three models generally underestimate the observed number of storms, storm days, and accumulated cyclone energy. Moreover, the study shows that the forecast TC tracks have a significant (p<0.05) positional bias toward the right of observed tracks beyond Week-1, and that they tend to propagate slower than observations especially in Week-1 and Week-2. These findings contribute to better understanding the strengths and limitations of these ensemble models useful for eventual provision of multi-week TC forecasts in the Philippines.
關鍵字
語言 zh_TW
ISSN 1520-0434
期刊性質 國外
收錄於 SCI Scopus
產學合作 國外
通訊作者 Marcelino Q. Villafuerte II
審稿制度 是
國別 USA
公開徵稿
出版型式 ,電子版,紙本
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