Assessment of hydrological droughts for the Yellow River, China, using copulas
學年 95
學期 2
出版（發表）日期 2007-07-01
作品名稱 Assessment of hydrological droughts for the Yellow River, China, using copulas
作品名稱（其他語言）
著者 蕭政宗; Shiau, Jenq-tzong; Feng, Song; Nadarajah, Saralees
單位 淡江大學水資源及環境工程學系
出版者 Bognor Regis: John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
著錄名稱、卷期、頁數 Hydrological Processes 21(16), pp.2157-2163
摘要 Droughts are one of the normal and recurrent climatic phenomena on Earth. However, recurring prolonged droughts have caused far-reaching and diverse impacts because of water deficits. This study aims to investigate the hydrological droughts of the Yellow River in northern China. Since drought duration and drought severity exhibit significant correlation, a bivariate distribution is used to model the drought duration and severity jointly. However, drought duration and drought severity are often modelled by different distributions; the commonly used bivariate distributions cannot be applied. In this study, a copula is employed to construct the bivariate drought distribution. The copula is a function that links the univariate marginal distributions to form the bivariate distribution. The bivariate return periods are also established to explore the drought characteristics of the historically noticeable droughts. The results show that the return period of the drought that occurred in late 1920s to early 1930s is 105 years. The significant 1997 dry-up phenomenon that occurred in the downstream Yellow River (resulting from the 1997–1998 drought) only has a return period of 4·4 years and is probably induced by two successive droughts and deteriorated by other factors, such as human activities.
關鍵字 drought;hydrological drought;bivariate distribution;copula;Yellow River
語言 en
ISSN 0885-6087
期刊性質 國外
收錄於
產學合作
通訊作者
審稿制度
國別 GBR
公開徵稿
出版型式 電子版
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