Opportunity for Early Warnings of Typhoon Lekima from Two Global Ensemble Model Forecasts of Formation with 7-Day Intensities along Medium-Range Tracks
學年 109
學期 1
出版（發表）日期 2020-10-27
作品名稱 Opportunity for Early Warnings of Typhoon Lekima from Two Global Ensemble Model Forecasts of Formation with 7-Day Intensities along Medium-Range Tracks
作品名稱（其他語言）
著者 Hsiao-Chung Tsai; Russell L. Elsberry; Wei-Chia Chin; Timothy P. Marchok
單位
出版者
著錄名稱、卷期、頁數 Atmosphere 11(11), 1162
摘要 Typhoon Lekima (2019) with its heavy rains and floods is an excellent example of the need to provide the earliest possible warnings of the formation, intensification, and subsequent track before a typhoon makes landfall along a densely populated coast. To demonstrate an opportunity to provide early (10 days in advance) warnings of the threat of Typhoon Lekima, the ensemble models from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and the National Centers for Environmental Predictions have been used to provide time-to-formation timing and positions along the weighted-mean vector motion track forecasts. In addition, the seven-day intensity forecasts after the formation using a weighted analog intensity prediction technique are provided. A detailed description of one European Center ensemble forecast is provided to describe the methodology for estimating the formation time and generating the intensity forecasts. Validation summary tables of the formation timing and position errors, and the intensity errors versus the Joint Typhoon Warning Center intensities, are presented. The availability of these ensemble forecasts would have been an opportunity to issue alerts/watches/warnings of Lekima even seven days in advance of when Lekima became a Tropical Storm. These ensemble forecasts also represent an opportunity to extend support on the 5–15 day timescale for the decision-making processes of water resource management and hydrological operations.
關鍵字 tropical cyclone formation;track forecasts;intensity forecasts;early hydrological warnings
語言 zh_TW
ISSN 2073-4433
期刊性質 國外
收錄於 SCI
產學合作
通訊作者 Hsiao-Chung Tsai
審稿制度 是
國別 CHE
公開徵稿
出版型式 ,電子版
相關連結

機構典藏連結 ( http://tkuir.lib.tku.edu.tw:8080/dspace/handle/987654321/119567 )

SDGS 優質教育