Detecting the Issue of Higher Education Over-Expanded Under Declining Enrollment Times
學年 110
學期 1
出版（發表）日期 2021-12-01
作品名稱 Detecting the Issue of Higher Education Over-Expanded Under Declining Enrollment Times
作品名稱（其他語言）
著者 Shu-Jing Wu, Dian-Fu Chang, Hui Hu
單位
出版者
著錄名稱、卷期、頁數 Higher Education Policy v.34, p.747-770
摘要 Various perspectives on higher education have been addressed to support the arguments of expansion issues, while studies on prediction to tackle the phenomenon are very limited. In this study, we focus on series data for tackling the problem of over-expansion in higher education and explore how the decrease in birth rate and potential enrollment might challenge the oversupply system. Based on time-series data from the Ministry of Education and Ministry of the Interior in Taiwan, we conducted a cross-correlation function and ARIMA models to detect trends in student cohorts and enrollment. The results reveal that enrollment in the higher education system will drop significantly in the next 10 years. Based on the trajectory, this study suggests remodeling the higher education system to adapt to the trend of potential enrollment. This study suggests that cutting current capacity is the most likely strategy for the Ministry of Education. Related policy makers and institutional leaders should consider both local boundaries and the global context when reinventing the higher education system.
關鍵字 ARIMA;declining birth rate;enrollment;higher education;higher education policy;over-expanded
語言 en
ISSN 0952-8733
期刊性質 國外
收錄於 SSCI
產學合作
通訊作者 Dian-Fu Chang
審稿制度 是
國別 GBR
公開徵稿
出版型式 ,電子版,紙本
相關連結

機構典藏連結 ( http://tkuir.lib.tku.edu.tw:8080/dspace/handle/987654321/116973 )

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