Hale Cycle and Indian Drought and Flood Area Indexes
學年 77
學期 2
出版(發表)日期 1989-05-01
作品名稱 Hale Cycle and Indian Drought and Flood Area Indexes
著者 Rao, A. Ramachandra; 虞國興; Yu, Gwo-hsing
單位 淡江大學水資源及環境工程學系
出版者 American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE)
著錄名稱、卷期、頁數 Journal of Irrigation and Drainage Engineering 115(3), pp.315-333
摘要 The Indian drought and flood area indexes (DAI and FAI, respectively) have been suggested to be related to the Hale cycle of sunspot numbers by Bhalme and Mooley (1981). They studied the dependence between sunspot numbers, DAI, and FAI series by using spectral, cross-spectral and dial analyses. The inference problems and the lack of dependability of results associated with crossspectral analysis of autocorrelated time series are well known. Consequently, in this study, the relationships between sunspot number, FAI, and DAI are studied by using more accurate methods of investigation of causal connections between time series and the results are reported. Univariate ARMA models are fitted to sunspot number, double sunspot cycle, DAI, and FAI series and these models are validated. The cross-correlation properties of residuals from these models are studied. Statistical tests developed by McLeod (1979), Pierce (1977), and Haugh (1976) are used to investigate the causal connections between sunspot numbers and DAI and FAI series. The results indicate that there is no significant relationship between sunspot number and FAI series. There is a consistent, statistically significant relationship between sunspot number and mild and moderate DAI series. However, these relationships are not strong enough to be used in forecasting droughts.
語言 en
ISSN 0733-9437

機構典藏連結 ( http://tkuir.lib.tku.edu.tw:8080/dspace/handle/987654321/17345 )