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This study examines whether there is any correlation between the returns of Taiwanese stocks and fluctuations in exchange rates. In the wake of interest rate hikes announced by the Federal Reserve on December 17th, 2015, the exchange rate of New Taiwan Dollar (NTD) fluctuated significantly. Therefore, by collecting data from the first 250 days before the event and 50 days after the event as samples, this paper aims to discuss and analyze whether different fluctuations in exchange rates significantly affect automotive stock prices.
By adopting standardized-residual cross-sectional method, this study examines whether the SAR deviates significantly from zero. The empirical results show that as investors expected the NTD would depreciate due to interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, the fluctuations of SAR of automotive stock prices become increasingly evident. In addition, the comparison of the SCARs of the early and late periods suggests that the correlation between stock prices and foreign exchange rates became more evident in the late period, as compared to the first. Furthermore, fluctuations in the exchange rate of the NTD positively correlate with automotive stock prices. It is therefore speculated that after the event, investors had gradually regained confidence, and had re-examined whether their stocks plunged unreasonably on account of fluctuating exchange rates, before performing short covering and bringing stock prices back to their fundamental values. |
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