An agent-based prediction market: a case study of xFuture in Taiwan
學年 104
學期 1
出版（發表）日期 2016-01-01
作品名稱 An agent-based prediction market: a case study of xFuture in Taiwan
作品名稱（其他語言）
著者 Bin-Tzong Chie; Chi-Ling Pai
單位
出版者
著錄名稱、卷期、頁數 International Journal of Computational Economics and Econometrics 6(4), p.390-412
摘要 This study adopted an agent-based modelling approach to investigate results of the world's leading Chinese prediction market, xFuture; in particular, Taiwan's 2008 and 2012 presidential elections. Real transaction results of xFuture were used as the base model. We employed double auction mechanism and Schelling's segregation model, and attempted to reconstruct the networking structures of the prediction market in 2008 and 2012. Purpose of this study is to discuss whether networking structures have any deterministic influence on how individual and hence joint belief distribution of participants could be formed. It is found that certain belief distribution properties, including shape, spread and location, could be critical factors for market efficiency/inefficiency. Our analysis suggested that in 2012 xFuture participants' belief distributions for the main candidates were associated with high kurtosis, small variance and approximate means. In other words, it might have a higher probability to deviate from the true outcome.
關鍵字 prediction markets;ABM;agent-based modelling;segregation model;double auction;social networks;belief distribution;agent-based systems;multi-agent systems;MAS;case study;xFuture;Taiwan;networking structures;market efficiency;market inefficiency;kurtosis;small variance;approximate means
語言 en
ISSN 1757-1170
期刊性質 國外
收錄於
產學合作
通訊作者
審稿制度 是
國別 GBR
公開徵稿
出版型式 ,紙本
相關連結

機構典藏連結 ( http://tkuir.lib.tku.edu.tw:8080/dspace/handle/987654321/108542 )

SDGS 和平正義與有力的制度