Improved tropical cyclone intensity and intensity spread prediction in bifurcation situations
學年 103
學期 1
出版(發表)日期 2014-11-01
作品名稱 Improved tropical cyclone intensity and intensity spread prediction in bifurcation situations
著者 Tsai, Hsiao-Chung; Russell L. Elsberry
單位 淡江大學水資源及環境工程學系
出版者 Seoul: Korean Meteorological Society
著錄名稱、卷期、頁數 Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 50(1), pp.669-680
摘要 Bifurcation or bi-modal tropical cyclone intensity forecasts may arise due to uncertainty in the timing of formation, timing and magnitude of rapid intensification periods, or track forecast uncertainty leading to landfall or non-landfall or leading to interaction with warm- or cold-ocean eddies. An objective technique is developed and tested to detect these intensity bifurcation situations in our weighted-analog intensity (WANI) forecasts that are based on the 10 best historical analogs to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) official track forecasts. About 19% of the overall sample of 1136 WANI forecasts in the western North Pacific during the 2010–2012 seasons met the criteria for a substantial intensity bifurcation situation. Using a hierarchical clustering technique, two clusters of the 10 best analogs are defined and separate WANI forecasts and intensity spreads are calculated for the two clusters. If an always perfect selection of the correct cluster WANI forecast of each bifurcation situation is made, a substantial improvement in the intensity mean absolute errors is achieved relative to the original WANI forecasts based on all 10 of the best analogs. These perfect-cluster selection WANI forecasts have smaller bias errors and are more highly correlated with the verifying intensities at all forecast intervals through 120 h. Without further bias correction and calibration, the cluster WANI intensity spreads are under-determined as the Probability of Detections are smaller than the desired 68%. Four examples of WANI cluster predictions of intensity bifurcation situations are provided to illustrate how a correct choice of the intensity forecast and the intensity spread can be the basis for improved warnings of the threat from western North Pacific tropical cyclones.
關鍵字 Tropical cyclone intensity forecasts;tropical cyclone intensity spread prediction;intensity forecast uncertainty;intensity bifurcation situations
語言 en
ISSN 1976-7633 1976-7951
期刊性質 國外
收錄於 SCI
通訊作者 Russell L. Elsberry
國別 KOR
出版型式 ,電子版,紙本

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