The Use of Knowledge in Prediction Markets: How Much of Them Need He Know?
學年 103
學期 1
出版（發表）日期 2015-01-01
作品名稱 The Use of Knowledge in Prediction Markets: How Much of Them Need He Know?
作品名稱（其他語言）
著者 Bin-Tzong Chie; Shu-Heng Chen
單位 淡江大學產業經濟學系
出版者 Tapiei: Institute of Information Science, Academia Sinica
著錄名稱、卷期、頁數 Journal of Information Science and Engineering 31(1), pp.1-22
摘要 In this article, we extend an early agent-based spatial model of the prediction market by taking into account the heterogeneities of agents in their tolerance capacity (tolerance to neighbors with different political identities) and in their exploration capacity (exploration of the political identities of other agents). We then study the effects of these heterogeneities on the behavior of the prediction market, including prediction accuracy, determinants of earnings, and income distribution. First, in terms of prediction accuracy, we find that, compared to the homogeneous case, bringing heterogeneity into the model can generally improve the prediction accuracy, although its statistical significance is limited. In particular, the well-known empirical regularity known as the favorite-longshot bias remains almost unchanged with this extension. Second, through the heterogeneous-agent design, we find that both capacities (personality traits) of agents have a significant positive effect on earnings, and the effect of the exploration capacity is even more dramatic. Third, through their effects on earnings, both capacities also contribute to income inequality, but only to a mild degree with a Gini coefficient of 0.20.
關鍵字 prediction markets;Schelling segregation model;zero-intelligence agents, Hayek hypothesis;tolerance capacity;exploration capacity;favorite-longshot bias
語言 en
ISSN 1016-2364
期刊性質 國內
收錄於 SCI EI
產學合作
通訊作者 Bin-Tzong Chie
審稿制度 否
國別 TWN
公開徵稿 Y
出版型式 ,電子版,紙本
相關連結

機構典藏連結 ( http://tkuir.lib.tku.edu.tw:8080/dspace/handle/987654321/104620 )

機構典藏連結
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