Investment under uncertainty - A case study of cosmetic firms
學年 99
學期 2
發表日期 2011-05-21
作品名稱 Investment under uncertainty - A case study of cosmetic firms
作品名稱（其他語言）
著者 Liao, Shu-hsien; Ho, Shiu-Hwei
作品所屬單位 淡江大學管理科學學系
出版者 Tamsui, Taipei: Tamkang University, Department of Management Sciences and Decision Making
會議名稱 The 2011 International Conference in Management Sciences and Decision Making
會議地點 Danshui, New Taipei City, Taiwan
摘要 The purpose of the study is to propose a model that based on the real options analysis for dealing with the entry-exit strategies of cosmetic GMP certification. The optimal thresholds are obtained from the model with uncertain revenue of the firm. According to the optimal entry and exit thresholds, the cosmetic firms can determine to enter into or to withdraw from the GMP certification. The GMP certification is an investment for the firms. Traditionally, the investments are evaluated by capital budgeting methods such as net present value (NPV) method or internal rate of return (IRR) method. However, the traditional methods are based on some unrealistic assumptions. For example, the cash flows of the project are generated with a certain scenario and the project are now exercised without any deferring flexibility. As a result, the traditional capital budgeting methods can not reveal the whole value of the project. Therefore, in order to show the entire value of the project, this paper adopts the real options approach to evaluate the project of cosmetic GMP certification. In addition, we compare the differences between the risk-adjusted net present value method and real options approach in their evaluation results.
關鍵字 Investment;Uncertainty;Flexibility;Real options
語言 en
收錄於
會議性質 國際
校內研討會地點 淡水校園
研討會時間 20110521~20110521
通訊作者
國別 TWN
公開徵稿 Y
出版型式
出處 Proceedings of the 2011 International Conference in Management Sciences and Decision Making=2011年管理科學與經營決策國際學術研討會論文集, pp.71-80
相關連結

機構典藏連結 ( http://tkuir.lib.tku.edu.tw:8080/dspace/handle/987654321/92047 )

機構典藏連結