市場成長率為目標之最佳化忠誠度計劃與促銷計劃預算分配
學年 100
學期 1
出版（發表）日期 2011-08-01
作品名稱 市場成長率為目標之最佳化忠誠度計劃與促銷計劃預算分配
作品名稱（其他語言） Optimizing Budget Allocation between Sales Promotion and Loyalty Programming to Maintain the Market Growth Rate
著者 曹修源
單位 淡江大學企業管理學系
描述 計畫編號：NSC100-2410-H032-007
 研究期間：20110801~20120731
 研究經費：314,000
委託單位 行政院國家科學委員會
摘要 Optimizing Budget Allocation between Sales Promotion and Loyalty Programming to Maintain the Market Growth Rate This study applies a first order Markov type market share model to determines the allocation of optimal multi-period budget between loyalty and sales promotion programs by nonlinear dynamic programming to minimize budget the while maintaining market growth rate during the multi-period stretch. Applying this approach to data from a consumer panel for 2010 provided by Taylor Nelson Sofres (TNS) Global Taiwan for three product categories comprising adult milk powder, shampoo, and detergent, based on the given initial size of market share and of the loyalty effect, with empirical data concerning the outlay budgeted for loyalty and promotion programs, nonlinear dynamic programming is used to demonstrates how to minimize total budget while maintaining market growth over the multi-period stretch. With this combination of a Markov type market share model and nonlinear dynamic programming, the study provides a platform for exploring the dynamic impacts of the long-term loyalty effect and the short-term promotion effect on market share, and helps determine the allocation of optimal multi-period budget between loyalty and promotion programs. 本研究結合馬可夫市佔率模型(Markov type market share model) 及非線性動態規劃 (non-linear dynamic programming)之方法，模擬以特定市場成長率為目標之下，利用已知 之期初品牌市場佔有率與忠誠度資料，忠誠度與促銷計劃預算分配比例為何，才能達到 總預算最小。實證資料是由TNS （Taylor Nelson Sofres）Global Taiwan 在2010 年提 供之三種快速流動消費性商品 (FMCG - Fast Moving Consumer Goods)：成人奶粉、洗髮 精和洗衣粉之消費者指數研究之資料(期初之市佔率及忠誠度資料)。預期研究的成果， 是結合一階馬可夫市佔率模型及非線性動態規劃，建立一行銷決策支援之模型與系統， 模擬忠誠度與促銷計劃預算分配如何動態影響市場成長率。
關鍵字 Markov type market share model; budget allocation; loyalty program; promotion program; nonlinear dynamic programming; market growth rate
語言 zh_TW
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