期刊論文
| 學年 | 104 |
|---|---|
| 學期 | 2 |
| 出版（發表）日期 | 2016-06-13 |
| 作品名稱 | Skill of Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecast Guidance Relative to Weighted-Analog Technique |
| 作品名稱（其他語言） | |
| 著者 | Hsiao-Chung Tsai; R. L. Elsberry |
| 單位 | |
| 出版者 | |
| 著錄名稱、卷期、頁數 | Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 52(3), pp.281–290 |
| 摘要 | The accuracy of the western North Pacific tropical cyclone intensity forecast guidance products available at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) is evaluated relative to a new skill metric called Weighted Analog Intensity Pacific (WAIP) that includes knowledge of the JTWC official track forecast and the current intensity, which is information that is available at the time the intensity forecast is generated. An intensity consensus technique called S5XX that includes statistical-dynamic intensity forecasts plus other dynamic and thermodynamic prediction techniques has statistically significant smaller errors than WAIP at 24 h and 48 h and has similar accuracy through 120 h. While the track consensus CONW is a critical input to the JTWC official track forecast, it has no skill relative to WAIP as an intensity forecast. Three regional numerical models also have no skill relative to WAIP, and especially at forecast intervals beyond 72 h because their mean absolute errors are statistically significantly larger than for WAIP. Furthermore, these regional models have statistically significant positive or negative intensity biases relative to the verifying intensities. However, an experimental consensus technique called CMES that includes these three regional models has small accuracy relative to WAIP in the 24 h to 72 h forecast intervals. Geographical-based comparisons of the intensity guidance products with the WAIP indicate almost all of the products are more accurate than WAIP over the South China Sea region. The statistical-dynamic consensus technique S5XX does have skill through 72 h for landfalling situations along the coasts of China and Southeast Asia. At 120 h, the WAIP has superior performance over the guidance products over most areas of the western North Pacific, but again the S5XX is more accurate than WAIP for landfalling tropical cyclones on the Philippine Islands, Southeast Asia, South China, and northeastern Japan. This information will be useful to the forecaster in deciding when and where (or how much) to rely on each guidance product in preparing the five-day intensity forecast once the official track forecast has been established. |
| 關鍵字 | Tropical cyclone intensity forecasts;tropical cyclone intensity skill metric;western North Pacific tropical cyclones |
| 語言 | en |
| ISSN | 1976-7951 1976-7633 |
| 期刊性質 | 國外 |
| 收錄於 | SCI |
| 產學合作 | |
| 通訊作者 | R. L. Elsberry |
| 審稿制度 | 是 |
| 國別 | KOR |
| 公開徵稿 | |
| 出版型式 | ,電子版,紙本 |
| 相關連結 |
機構典藏連結 ( http://tkuir.lib.tku.edu.tw:8080/dspace/handle/987654321/106986 ) |