教師資料查詢 | 類別: 期刊論文 | 教師: 翁明賢 Wong Ming-hsien (瀏覽個人網頁)

標題:美國未來霸權地位演變趨勢之分析週期理論觀點
學年95
學期1
出版(發表)日期2006/10/01
作品名稱美國未來霸權地位演變趨勢之分析週期理論觀點
作品名稱(其他語言)Analysis of the Trend That U. S.'s Dominant Status Develops: View of Cyclical Theories
著者翁明賢; 李黎明
單位淡江大學國際事務與戰略研究所
出版者臺中市中興大學國際政治研究所
著錄名稱、卷期、頁數全球政治評論=Review of Global Politics 16頁27-48
摘要學者曾經指出,國際間霸權競爭的結果,導致世界歷史中的重大轉折,此種週期性的衝突,重組國際體系的權力結構並導向一個新而未知的歷史發展方向。
有部份研究文獻,對全球戰爭導致世界政治與經濟的歷史演變過程,進行了重要的論述。他們認為,長週期變化的情形可以經由概念與理論的說明以了解。此即所謂「國際政治長期週期理論」。
本文的目的,在於了解週期理論對當前國際問題有無助益,並希望藉此獲得若干有用的解析意涵。經由初步的觀察與分析,本文的結論是,在2025年至2030年之間,爆發戰爭或重大變革的可能性很大。更寬廣的分析結果,在2017至2034年之間都有這種可能性。美國在未來霸權地位,很可能因為此種週期性的變化,經由國際戰略情勢的轉變而改變。;Some scholar pointed out that great turning points in world history have been provided by these hegemonic struggles among political rivals. These periodic conflicts had reconstructed the international system and propelled history to new and uncertain directions.
Some researches focus on large-scale organized warfare that lead to the historical evolution of world economic and political phenomena and discourse important viewpoints. They believe that long-term changes can be understood through conceptual and theoretical clarification. These viewpoints are called "cuclical theories of international polities."
The purpose of this paper is to find out that whether the cycle theory benefits the persent international problems or not. It is also expected to obtained some useful interpretive meanings by this research. Via preliminary observation and analysis, it is concluded that between 2025 and 2030, there is a great possibility of having a war or huge change. A broadly analytic conclusion, the possibility will exist in between 2017 and 2034. American's hegemony status may be altered by the transiting of international strategy situation due to the cyclical changes.
關鍵字週期理論; 國際政治; 霸權; 長週期; Cyclical theories; International politics; Hegemony; Long cycle
語言中文
ISSN1726-3786
期刊性質國內
收錄於
產學合作
通訊作者
審稿制度
國別中華民國
公開徵稿
出版型式紙本
相關連結
Google+ 推薦功能,讓全世界都能看到您的推薦!