Predicting Rapid Intensification Events Following Tropical Cyclone Formation in the Western North Pacific Based on ECMWF Ensemble Warm Core Evolutions
學年 109
學期 2
出版（發表）日期 2021-06-29
作品名稱 Predicting Rapid Intensification Events Following Tropical Cyclone Formation in the Western North Pacific Based on ECMWF Ensemble Warm Core Evolutions
作品名稱（其他語言）
著者 Russell L. Elsberry; Hsiao-Chung Tsai; Wei-Chia Chin; Timothy P. Marchok
單位
出版者
著錄名稱、卷期、頁數 Atmosphere 12(7), 847
摘要 When the environmental conditions over the western North Pacific are favorable for tropical cyclone formation, a rapid intensification event will frequently follow formation. In this extension of our combined three-stage 7-day Weighted Analog Intensity Pacific prediction technique, the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Prediction ensemble predictions of the warm core magnitudes of pre-tropical cyclone circulations are utilized to define the Time-to-Formation (35 knots) and to estimate the Likely Storm Category. If that category is a Typhoon, the bifurcation version of our technique is modified to better predict the peak intensity by selecting only Cluster 1 analog storms with the largest peak intensities that are most likely to have under-gone rapid intensification. A second modification to improve the peak intensity magnitude and timing was to fit a cubic spline curve through the weighted-mean peak intensities of the Cluster 1 analogs. The performance of this modified technique has been evaluated for a sequence of western North Pacific tropical cyclones during 2019 in terms of: (i) Detection time in advance of formation; (ii) Accuracy of Time-to-Formation; (iii) Intensification stage prediction; and (iv) Peak intensity magnitude/timing. This modified technique would provide earlier guidance as to the threat of a Typhoon along the 15-day ensemble storm track forecast, which would be a benefit for risk management officials.
關鍵字 tropical cyclone intensity forecasts;rapid intensification;ensemble model predictions
語言 zh_TW
ISSN
期刊性質 國外
收錄於 SCI Scopus
產學合作
通訊作者
審稿制度 是
國別 CHE
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出版型式 ,電子版
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