教師資料查詢 | 類別: 期刊論文 | 教師: 池秉聰 Chih, Ping-tsung (瀏覽個人網頁)

標題:Predicting the failures of prediction markets: A procedure of decision making using classification models
學年107
學期1
出版(發表)日期2019/01/01
作品名稱Predicting the failures of prediction markets: A procedure of decision making using classification models
作品名稱(其他語言)
著者Chung-Ching Tai; Hung-Wen Lin; Bin-Tzong Chie; Chen-Yuan Tung
單位
出版者
著錄名稱、卷期、頁數International Journal of Forecasting 35(1), p.297-312
摘要Prediction markets have been an important source of information for decision makers due to their high ex post accuracies. Nevertheless, recent failures of prediction markets remind us of the importance of ex ante assessments of their prediction accuracy. This paper proposes a systematic procedure for decision makers to acquire prediction models which may be used to predict the correctness of winner-take-all markets. We commence with a set of classification models and generate combined models following various rules. We also create artificial records in the training datasets to overcome the imbalanced data issue in classification problems. These models are then empirically trained and tested with a large dataset to see which may best be used to predict the failures of prediction markets. We find that no model can universally outperform others in terms of different performance measures. Despite this, we clearly demonstrate a result of capable models for decision makers based on different decision goals.
關鍵字Combining forecasts;Support vector machine;Decision trees;Principal component analysis;Discriminant analysis;Imbalanced data;Oversampling;SMOTE
語言英文(美國)
ISSN0169-2070
期刊性質國外
收錄於SSCI;
產學合作
通訊作者
審稿制度
國別美國
公開徵稿
出版型式,電子版,紙本
相關連結
Google+ 推薦功能,讓全世界都能看到您的推薦!