教師資料查詢 | 類別: 期刊論文 | 教師: 張鈿富 Dian-fu Chang (瀏覽個人網頁)

標題:Estimating the Gaps between Potential Enrollment Numbers and Kindergarten Capacities by Using Time Series Models
學年107
學期1
出版(發表)日期2018/12/01
作品名稱Estimating the Gaps between Potential Enrollment Numbers and Kindergarten Capacities by Using Time Series Models
作品名稱(其他語言)
著者Dian-Fu Chang; Huei-Ting Huang; Hsiao-Chi ChangTzeng
單位
出版者
著錄名稱、卷期、頁數ICIC Express Letters Part B: Applications, 9(12),p.1241-1248 (Scopus)
摘要This study selected Taiwan as a target to tackle the issue of gap between potential enrollment numbers and kindergarten capacities (KC). The purposes of this study are to realize the effect of 0-year babies (ZYB) declining existing in Taiwan, to project the future development of ZYB and to estimate the gap between ZYB and KC in the system. This study selects the ARIMA model to verify the robustness of forecasting ZYB. Employing the projecting data of ZYB, this study calculates the gaps between ZYB and estimated KC in next decade. Based on the fittest ARIMA model and the gap estimation, this study found the one-year model of KC is oversupply and the gaps will increase steadily. The gaps between demands and supplies in two-year model of KC are diminishing in next decade. This study provides a practical method to detect whether it is an issue of oversupply in the kindergarten system. Both predict and estimate models provide useful knowledge to reinvent management strategies to ameliorate the issue of the system.
關鍵字ARIMA;Kindergarten capacity;Management strategy;Newborn babies;Time series analysis
語言英文(美國)
ISSN2185-2766
期刊性質國外
收錄於
產學合作
通訊作者Huei-Ting Huang
審稿制度
國別日本
公開徵稿
出版型式,電子版
相關連結
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