教師資料查詢 | 類別: 期刊論文 | 教師: 蔡孝忠 HSIAO-CHUNG TSAI (瀏覽個人網頁)

標題:Seven-Day Intensity and Intensity Spread Predictions in Bifurcation Situations with Guidance-On-Guidance for Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclones
學年107
學期1
出版(發表)日期2018/08/01
作品名稱Seven-Day Intensity and Intensity Spread Predictions in Bifurcation Situations with Guidance-On-Guidance for Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclones
作品名稱(其他語言)
著者Hsiao-Chung Tsai; Russell L. Elsberry
單位
出版者
著錄名稱、卷期、頁數Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 54(3), p.421-430
摘要An objective technique to detect and predict intensity bifurcation situations in a five-day Weighted Analog Intensity forecast technique for the western North Pacific (WAIP) has been extended to seven days. A hierarchical cluster analysis is applied to the N analog intensities to separate them into two clusters, which are considered to represent a substantial intensity bifurcation if a threshold maximum velocity difference of 15 kt is satisfied. Two important modifications have been made to develop the bifurcation version for seven-day WAIP forecasts. First, the number of track analogs has been increased from 10 analogs to 16 analogs, which results in larger sample sizes and better performance. Second, separate intensity bias corrections are calculated for the two cluster WAIP forecasts rather than using the same 16-analog intensity bias correction. If an always perfect selection of the correct cluster WAIP forecast of each bifurcation situation is made, a substantial improvement in the intensity mean absolute errors is achieved relative to the original WAIP forecasts based on all 16 of the best analogs. These perfect-cluster selection WAIP forecasts have smaller bias errors and are more highly correlated with the verifying intensities at all forecast intervals through 168 h. Furthermore, the Probability of Detection is improved for the perfect-cluster selection and more realistic intensity spreads are specified. A simple guidance-on-guidance technique is demonstrated to assist the forecasters in selecting the correct WAIP cluster forecast in bifurcation situations.
關鍵字Tropical cyclone intensity forecasts;Tropical cyclone intensity spread predictions;Intensity bifurcation situations
語言英文
ISSN
期刊性質國外
收錄於SCI;
產學合作
通訊作者
審稿制度
國別韓國
公開徵稿
出版型式,電子版,紙本
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