教師資料查詢 | 類別: 期刊論文 | 教師: 蔡孝忠 HSIAO-CHUNG TSAI (瀏覽個人網頁)

標題:Seven-Day Intensity and Intensity Spread Predictions for Atlantic Tropical Cyclones
學年105
學期1
出版(發表)日期2017/01/04
作品名稱Seven-Day Intensity and Intensity Spread Predictions for Atlantic Tropical Cyclones
作品名稱(其他語言)
著者Hsiao-Chung Tsai; Russell. L. Elsberry
單位
出版者
著錄名稱、卷期、頁數Weather and Forecasting 32(1), p.141-147
摘要The extension of the Weighted Analog Intensity Atlantic (WAIA) prediction technique for Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) from 5 to 7 days revealed a need for two modifications. The first modification for the 7-day WAIA was to randomly select 70% of the TCs in the entire 2000–15 sample to be the training set and use the remaining 30% as the independent set. The second modification was to ensure that appropriate analogs were selected for ending storm situations such as landfall, postrecurvature, and nondevelopment or delayed intensification within the 7-day forecast interval. By simply constraining the analog selection such that the intensity at the last matching point with the target TC track does not exceed 50 kt (where 1 kt = 0.51 m s−1), an increasing overforecast bias with forecast interval was almost eliminated in both the training set and the independent set. With these two analog selection modifications, the mean absolute errors, and the correlation coefficients of the 7-day WAIA intensities with the verifying intensities, are essentially constant from 5 to 7 days, which establishes this WAIA as a viable technique for 7-day intensity forecasts of Atlantic TCs.
關鍵字Forecasting techniques
語言英文(美國)
ISSN0882-8156;1520-0434
期刊性質國外
收錄於SCI;
產學合作
通訊作者
審稿制度
國別美國
公開徵稿
出版型式,電子版,紙本
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