教師資料查詢 | 類別: 期刊論文 | 教師: 池秉聰 Chih, Ping-tsung (瀏覽個人網頁)

標題:The Use of Knowledge in Prediction Markets: How Much of Them Need He Know?
學年103
學期1
出版(發表)日期2015/01/01
作品名稱The Use of Knowledge in Prediction Markets: How Much of Them Need He Know?
作品名稱(其他語言)
著者Bin-Tzong Chie; Shu-Heng Chen
單位淡江大學產業經濟學系
出版者Tapiei: Institute of Information Science, Academia Sinica
著錄名稱、卷期、頁數Journal of Information Science and Engineering 31(1), pp.1-22
摘要In this article, we extend an early agent-based spatial model of the prediction market
by taking into account the heterogeneities of agents in their tolerance capacity (tolerance
to neighbors with different political identities) and in their exploration capacity (exploration
of the political identities of other agents). We then study the effects of these heterogeneities
on the behavior of the prediction market, including prediction accuracy, determinants
of earnings, and income distribution. First, in terms of prediction accuracy, we
find that, compared to the homogeneous case, bringing heterogeneity into the model can
generally improve the prediction accuracy, although its statistical significance is limited.
In particular, the well-known empirical regularity known as the favorite-longshot bias
remains almost unchanged with this extension. Second, through the heterogeneous-agent
design, we find that both capacities (personality traits) of agents have a significant positive
effect on earnings, and the effect of the exploration capacity is even more dramatic.
Third, through their effects on earnings, both capacities also contribute to income inequality,
but only to a mild degree with a Gini coefficient of 0.20.
關鍵字prediction markets;Schelling segregation model;zero-intelligence agents, Hayek hypothesis;tolerance capacity;exploration capacity;favorite-longshot bias
語言英文
ISSN1016-2364
期刊性質國內
收錄於SCI;EI;
產學合作
通訊作者Bin-Tzong Chie
審稿制度
國別中華民國
公開徵稿Y
出版型式,電子版,紙本
相關連結
Google+ 推薦功能,讓全世界都能看到您的推薦!