A forecasting decision on the sales volume of printers in Taiwan: An exploitation of the analytic network process
學年 101
學期 1
出版（發表）日期 2012-09-01
作品名稱 A forecasting decision on the sales volume of printers in Taiwan: An exploitation of the analytic network process
作品名稱（其他語言）
著者 Shih, Hsu-Shih; Stanley Lee; Shun-Hsiang Chuang; Chiau-Ching Chen
單位 淡江大學管理科學學系
出版者 Kidlington: Pergamon
著錄名稱、卷期、頁數 Computers & Mathematics with Applications 64(6), pp. 1545–1556
摘要 This study applies the Analytic Network Process (ANP) to forecast the sales volume of printers in Taiwan for adjusting the recycling and treatment fee as an incentive for recycling industries. When historical data are lacking and when a broad spectrum of social impact is involved, the ANP, with the capacity to manage dependence and feedback among the factors, can serve as a tool to forecast outcomes by using expert judgment. The priorities derived from numerical judgment are similar to probabilities. They are obtained from the limit supermatrix of the ANP that represents forecasts for the next period. The result of back testing has shown that the ANP’s percentage error is small compared with those of some naïve statistical techniques. Sensitivity analysis is also made to ensure robustness of the model. Finally, the characteristic strengths of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and ANP in forecasting are discussed to simplify their use in future applications.
關鍵字 Management decision making; Judgmental forecasting; Analytic Network Process; Dependence and feedback; Forecasting-related applications;Analytic Hierarchy Process
語言 en_US
ISSN 0898-1221
期刊性質 國外
收錄於 SCI EI
產學合作
通訊作者
審稿制度 是
國別 GBR
公開徵稿
出版型式 電子版 紙本
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