教師資料查詢 | 類別: 期刊論文 | 教師: 時序時 Hsu-shih Shih (瀏覽個人網頁)

標題:A forecasting decision on the sales volume of printers in Taiwan: An exploitation of the analytic network process
學年101
學期1
出版(發表)日期2012/09/01
作品名稱A forecasting decision on the sales volume of printers in Taiwan: An exploitation of the analytic network process
作品名稱(其他語言)
著者Shih, Hsu-Shih; Stanley Lee; Shun-Hsiang Chuang; Chiau-Ching Chen
單位淡江大學管理科學學系
出版者Kidlington: Pergamon
著錄名稱、卷期、頁數Computers & Mathematics with Applications 64(6), pp. 1545–1556
摘要This study applies the Analytic Network Process (ANP) to forecast the sales volume of printers in Taiwan for adjusting the recycling and treatment fee as an incentive for recycling industries. When historical data are lacking and when a broad spectrum of social impact is involved, the ANP, with the capacity to manage dependence and feedback among the factors, can serve as a tool to forecast outcomes by using expert judgment. The priorities derived from numerical judgment are similar to probabilities. They are obtained from the limit supermatrix of the ANP that represents forecasts for the next period. The result of back testing has shown that the ANP’s percentage error is small compared with those of some naïve statistical techniques. Sensitivity analysis is also made to ensure robustness of the model. Finally, the characteristic strengths of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and ANP in forecasting are discussed to simplify their use in future applications.
關鍵字Management decision making; Judgmental forecasting; Analytic Network Process; Dependence and feedback; Forecasting-related applications;Analytic Hierarchy Process
語言英文(美國)
ISSN0898-1221
期刊性質國外
收錄於SCI;EI;
產學合作
通訊作者
審稿制度
國別英國
公開徵稿
出版型式電子版;紙本;
相關連結
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