Improved grey prediction models for the trans‐pacific air passenger market
學年 86
學期 1
出版（發表）日期 1998-01-01
作品名稱 Improved grey prediction models for the trans‐pacific air passenger market
作品名稱（其他語言）
著者 Hsu, Chaug-ing; 溫裕弘; Wen, Yuh-horng; Hsu, Chaug-ing
單位 淡江大學運輸管理學系
出版者
著錄名稱、卷期、頁數 Transportation planning and technology 22(2), pp.87-107
摘要 The rapid economic growth of Asia‐Pacific countries continues to result in faster travel growth in the trans‐Pacific air passenger market. Grey theory is used to develop time series GM(1,1) models for forecasting total passenger and 10 country‐pair passenger traffic flows in this market. The accumulated generating operation (AGO) is one of the most important characteristics of grey theory, and its main purpose is to reduce the randomness of data. The original GM(1,1) models are improved by using residual modifications with Markov‐chain sign estimations. These models are shown to be more reliable by posterior checks and to yield more accurate prediction results than ARIMA and multiple regression models. The results indicate that the total number of air passengers in the trans‐Pacific market will increase at an average annual growth rate of approximately 11% up to the year 2000.
關鍵字 Grey theory;Grey model (GM);Air passenger traffic;Accumulated generating operation (AGO);Prediction
語言 en
ISSN
期刊性質 國內
收錄於 SCI EI
產學合作
通訊作者
審稿制度 否
國別 TWN
公開徵稿
出版型式 ,電子版
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