教師資料查詢 | 類別: 期刊論文 | 教師: 溫裕弘 Yuh-Horng Wen (瀏覽個人網頁)

標題:Improved grey prediction models for the trans‐pacific air passenger market
學年86
學期1
出版(發表)日期1998/01/01
作品名稱Improved grey prediction models for the trans‐pacific air passenger market
作品名稱(其他語言)
著者Hsu, Chaug-ing; 溫裕弘; Wen, Yuh-horng; Hsu, Chaug-ing
單位淡江大學運輸管理學系
出版者
著錄名稱、卷期、頁數Transportation planning and technology 22(2), pp.87-107
摘要The rapid economic growth of Asia‐Pacific countries continues to result in faster travel growth in the trans‐Pacific air passenger market. Grey theory is used to develop time series GM(1,1) models for forecasting total passenger and 10 country‐pair passenger traffic flows in this market. The accumulated generating operation (AGO) is one of the most important characteristics of grey theory, and its main purpose is to reduce the randomness of data. The original GM(1,1) models are improved by using residual modifications with Markov‐chain sign estimations. These models are shown to be more reliable by posterior checks and to yield more accurate prediction results than ARIMA and multiple regression models. The results indicate that the total number of air passengers in the trans‐Pacific market will increase at an average annual growth rate of approximately 11% up to the year 2000.
關鍵字Grey theory;Grey model (GM);Air passenger traffic;Accumulated generating operation (AGO);Prediction
語言英文
ISSN
期刊性質國內
收錄於SCI;EI;
產學合作
通訊作者
審稿制度
國別中華民國
公開徵稿
出版型式,電子版
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