期刊論文
| 學年 | 100 |
|---|---|
| 學期 | 1 |
| 出版（發表）日期 | 2011-12-01 |
| 作品名稱 | Regional Business Cycle Phases in Taiwan |
| 作品名稱（其他語言） | |
| 著者 | Liu, De-Chih |
| 單位 | 淡江大學產業經濟學系 |
| 出版者 | Richmond: Wiley-Blackwell Publishing Asia |
| 著錄名稱、卷期、頁數 | South African Journal of Economics 79(4), pp.452–469 |
| 摘要 | This paper uses both univariate and multivariate Markov-switching models to explore the characteristics of the regional business cycle phases in Taiwan. In particular, this paper provides novel evidence regarding the “turning-point identification” puzzle in Taiwan that to date has not been fully resolved. We find that the regime-switching behaviour of the common regional business cycle is consistent (or even precedes recession) with the business cycle expansion and contraction indicators used by the Council for Economic Planning and Development. This finding suggests that the common regional business cycle identifies the turning point after the 1990s. This finding also suggests that the employment growth index would be a great indicator for monitoring the business cycle in Taiwan. |
| 關鍵字 | Regional business cycles; employment growth; turning point |
| 語言 | en |
| ISSN | 0038-2280; 1813-6982 |
| 期刊性質 | |
| 收錄於 | SSCI |
| 產學合作 | |
| 通訊作者 | Liu, De-Chih |
| 審稿制度 | 是 |
| 國別 | AUS |
| 公開徵稿 | |
| 出版型式 | 紙本 |
| 相關連結 |
機構典藏連結 ( http://tkuir.lib.tku.edu.tw:8080/dspace/handle/987654321/89402 ) |