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標題:SEVEN-DAY INTENSITY FORECASTS FOR WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONES
學年105
學期2
發表日期2017/03/06
作品名稱SEVEN-DAY INTENSITY FORECASTS FOR WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONES
作品名稱(其他語言)
著者Russell Elsberry; Hsiao-Chung Tsai
作品所屬單位
出版者
會議名稱US PACOM Joint Tropical Cyclone Forecasting Program Assembly
會議地點Hawaii, USA
摘要Our weighted-analog intensity (WANI) technique for predicting western North Pacific tropical cyclone intensity and with intensity spread guidance has been extended from five days to seven days. A perfect-prog approach that utilizes the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) best-tracks is adopted and the 10 best historical track analogs are selected from the 1945–2009 JTWC best-track file. A development sample from the 2000–2009 seasons is used to develop an intensity bias correction and an intensity spread calibration. Tests with an independent sample from the 2010–2014 seasons demonstrate that the intensity mean absolute errors and the correlation coefficients of the WANI forecast intensities with the verifying intensities essentially remain constant in the five-day to seven-day forecast interval. After calibration of the raw intensity spreads among the 10 historical analogs each 12 h, the uncertainty estimates about the WANI intensity forecasts also do not increase during the five-day to seven-day forecast intervals. The conclusion is that the seven-day WANI will provide intensity and intensity spread predictions of western North Pacific tropical cyclones with a similar performance as our five-day WANI technique. Examples of the performance for this seven-day WANI for westward-moving and northwestward-moving cyclones that make landfall, or for recurving storms that begin decay after rrecurvature over the ocean, demonstrate the value of constraining the intensities at the end of the WANI forecast. Less satisfactory WANI forecasts occur for rapid intensification, rapid decay, and for cyclones with extended periods of non-intensification.
關鍵字Tropical cyclone intensity forecas;tstropical cyclone intensity spread predictions
語言英文(美國)
收錄於
會議性質國際
校內研討會地點
研討會時間20170306~20170310
通訊作者
國別美國
公開徵稿
出版型式
出處2017 PACOM JTCFP ASSEMBLY
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