教師資料查詢 | 類別: 期刊論文 | 教師: 蔡孝忠 HSIAO-CHUNG TSAI (瀏覽個人網頁)

標題:Opportunities and challenges for extended-range predictions of tropical cyclone impacts on hydrological predictions
學年102
學期1
出版(發表)日期2013/12/09
作品名稱Opportunities and challenges for extended-range predictions of tropical cyclone impacts on hydrological predictions
作品名稱(其他語言)
著者Tsai, Hsiao-Chung; Russell L. Elsberry
單位
出版者
著錄名稱、卷期、頁數Journal of Hydrology 506, pp.42-54
摘要An opportunity exists to extend support to the decision-making processes of water resource management and hydrological operations by providing extended-range tropical cyclone (TC) formation and track forecasts in the western North Pacific from the 51-member ECMWF 32-day ensemble. A new objective verification technique demonstrates that the ECMWF ensemble can predict most of the formations and tracks of the TCs during July 2009 to December 2010, even for most of the tropical depressions. Due to the relatively large number of false-alarm TCs in the ECMWF ensemble forecasts that would cause problems for support of hydrological operations, characteristics of these false alarms are discussed. Special attention is given to the ability of the ECMWF ensemble to predict periods of no-TCs in the Taiwan area, since water resource management decisions also depend on the absence of typhoon-related rainfall. A three-tier approach is proposed to provide support for hydrological operations via extended-range forecasts twice weekly on the 30-day timescale, twice-daily on the 15-day timescale, and up to four times a day with a consensus of high-resolution deterministic models.
關鍵字Tropical cyclones;Extended-range ensemble forecast;Forecast verification
語言英文(美國)
ISSN
期刊性質國外
收錄於SCI;
產學合作
通訊作者
審稿制度
國別美國
公開徵稿
出版型式,電子版,紙本
相關連結
Google+ 推薦功能,讓全世界都能看到您的推薦!