教師資料查詢 | 類別: 期刊論文 | 教師: 蔡孝忠 HSIAO-CHUNG TSAI (瀏覽個人網頁)

標題:Weighted Analog Technique for Intensity and Intensity Spread Predictions of Atlantic Tropical Cyclones
學年104
學期1
出版(發表)日期2015/10/15
作品名稱Weighted Analog Technique for Intensity and Intensity Spread Predictions of Atlantic Tropical Cyclones
作品名稱(其他語言)
著者Tsai, Hsiao-Chung; Russell L. Elsberry
單位
出版者
著錄名稱、卷期、頁數Weather and Forecasting 30(5), p.1321-1333
摘要A situation-dependent intensity and intensity spread prediction technique for the Atlantic called WAIA is developed using the same procedures as for our technique for the western North Pacific that is operational at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. These simple techniques are based on rankings of the 10 best historical track analogs to match the official track forecast and current intensity. A key step is development of a bias correction to eliminate an over-forecast bias. The second key step is a calibration of the original intensity spread among the 10 analogs to achieve a probability of detection of about 68% at all forecast intervals, which we propose would be an appropriate intensity spread for the National Hurricane Center (NHC) official intensity forecasts.

The advantages of WAIA as an operational intensity forecast product for Atlantic tropical cyclones are described in terms of mean absolute errors, sample-mean biases, and geographic distributions of WAIA versus various guidance products available at NHC. Specific attention is given to the four guidance products that are included in the intensity consensus (ICON) technique that is the most skillful of all the products. Evidence is given that WAIA would be an independent, and more likely skillful at longer forecast intervals, technique to include in the ICON. Consequently, WAIA would likely lead to improved NHC intensity forecasts at four- to five-day intervals.
關鍵字Statistical forecasting
語言英文(美國)
ISSN0882-8156; 1520-0434
期刊性質國外
收錄於SCI;
產學合作
通訊作者R. L. Elsberry
審稿制度
國別美國
公開徵稿
出版型式,電子版,紙本
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