教師資料查詢 | 類別: 期刊論文 | 教師: 池秉聰 Chih, Ping-tsung (瀏覽個人網頁)

標題:Financial Innovation and Divisia Money in Taiwan: Comparative Evidence from Neural Network and Vector Error Correction Forecasting Models
學年93
學期1
出版(發表)日期2004/09/01
作品名稱Financial Innovation and Divisia Money in Taiwan: Comparative Evidence from Neural Network and Vector Error Correction Forecasting Models
作品名稱(其他語言)
著者池秉聰; Binner, J.; Gazely, A.; Chen, S. H.
單位淡江大學產業經濟學系
出版者
著錄名稱、卷期、頁數Contemporary Economic Policy 22(2), pp.213-224
摘要In this article a Divisia monetary index is constructed for the Taiwan economy, and its inflation forecasting potential is compared with that of its traditional simple sum counterpart. The Divisia index is adjusted in two ways to allow for the financial liberalization that Taiwan has experienced since the 1970s. The powerful artificial intelligence technique of neural networks is used and is found to beat the conventional econometric techniques in a simple inflation forecasting experiment. The preferred inflation forecasting model is achieved using networks that employ a Divisia M2 measure of money that has been adjusted to incorporate a learning mechanism to allow individuals to gradually alter their perceptions of the increased productivity of money. The explanatory power of the two innovation-adjusted Divisia aggregates dominates that of the simple sum counterpart in the majority of cases. (JEL C4, E4, E5)
關鍵字
語言英文(美國)
ISSN
期刊性質國外
收錄於SSCI;
產學合作
通訊作者
審稿制度
國別中華民國
公開徵稿
出版型式,電子版
相關連結
Google+ 推薦功能,讓全世界都能看到您的推薦!