期刊論文
| 學年 | 110 |
|---|---|
| 學期 | 1 |
| 出版（發表）日期 | 2021-12-01 |
| 作品名稱 | Detecting the Issues of Aging Society Based on the Trend of Dependency and Support Population |
| 作品名稱（其他語言） | |
| 著者 | Dian-Fu Chang; Tsung-Chieh Lu |
| 單位 | |
| 出版者 | |
| 著錄名稱、卷期、頁數 | ICIC Express Letters Part B: Applications 12(12), pp.1145-1153 |
| 摘要 | Aging has become a prevailing phenomenon in the world. Various countries have shown moving into a super-aged society. When an aging society is confronted with a declining birthrate what will happen in its structure of the population. We assumed both aging and declining birthrate issues might change the structure of the population fundamentally in a society. This study aims to explore the issue of the population structure change in an aging society. Both dependency and support populations have been addressed with a new definition to recalculate their proportion. Taking Taiwan as an example, this study utilized the data set from 1974 to 2020 in the Ministry of Interior and transferred the original series data. Becker’s D index was used to interpret the transformation of the pattern in dependency and support population in the society. We employed ARIMA to build models for predicting a long-term trend with D. The findings suggest that the new calculation of the young dependency population at 0-20 years old is more reasonable. The new calculation D shows it can reflect sensitively the declining trend in the next decade. Even though the support population is still stable in this society, the balancing issue might become a new challenge in the future. |
| 關鍵字 | Aging society;ARIMA;Becker’s D;Dependency population;Support population |
| 語言 | en_US |
| ISSN | 2185-2766 |
| 期刊性質 | 國內 |
| 收錄於 | |
| 產學合作 | |
| 通訊作者 | |
| 審稿制度 | 是 |
| 國別 | JPN |
| 公開徵稿 | |
| 出版型式 | ,電子版 |
| 相關連結 |
機構典藏連結 ( http://tkuir.lib.tku.edu.tw:8080/dspace/handle/987654321/121760 ) |